中国的房地产风险比美国还大（转）

RedGuest

中国的房地产风险比美国还大

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6b8f8d8-6ce2-11df-91c8-00144feab49a,dwp_uuid=f6e7043e-6d68-11da-a4df-0000779e2340.html

2008-5-31 北京

中国央行的一位顾问表示，中国房地产风险比金融危机之前的美国要严重，因为中国的房地产泡沫中还有社会不满的风险。

清华大学教授，中国央行货币政策委员会成员，李道奎日前表示，最近炡椨正在制定一些列的政策来冷却房市，以将高房价控制住，将房地产作为经济发展的长期推动力。

他补充道，有迹象表明中国经济过热，建议适当增加利息，控制货币水平

“中国的房地产市场的问题比金融危机之前的美国和香港要大的多，也更重要”，他在采访中表示，“已经不仅仅是泡沫的问题了”

他提到了周一国务院发表申明证实计划改革房地产税，非常明确的表示，炡椨将第一次在一些居住房征税以控制上涨的价格。消息导致沪指下跌了2.4%。

李先生与其他经济学家温和的态度不用的是，他异常直率的评论，欧洲危机将会导致中国避免进一步的缩进政策，包括货币升值。

中国总理溫傢寶在周一表示，目前收回经济刺激计划尚早，这也进一步强化了这种观点。

“欧洲部分國镓的债务危机将阻碍欧洲的经济复苏”，他在东京表示，“中国将保持危机意识”。

李先生说，高房价可能减慢城市化进程，阻碍将来的经济发展。上涨的房价也是潜在的政治风险，特别是年轻的一代人，他们觉得成为了房子的奴隶。

“当价格走该，很多人，特别是年轻人变得很焦虑”，他说，“这就成了一个社会问题了”

他说，尽管房地产销售锐减和欧洲危机，经济活动仍然强劲，“中国的风险在增加，或已经处在过热的边缘”，他说，不过他补充说，“我更想说的是，一切都在控制中”

他呼吁适当提高存款利息，真实利息已经是负的了，同时他说，货币适当升值将有助于公司为越来越强劲的RMB升值做好准备。

China property risk is worse than in US

By Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: May 31 2010 20:08 | Last updated: May 31 2010 20:08

The problems in China’s housing market are more severe than those in the US before the financial crisis because they combine a potential bubble with the risk of social discontent, according to an adviser to the Chinese central bank.

Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University and a member of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee, said recent government measures to cool the property market needed to be part of a long-term push to bring high housing prices under control.

He added that there were still signs that the economy was overheating and recommended modest increases in interest rates and the level of the currency.

“The housing market problem in China is actually much, much more fundamental, much bigger than the housing market problem in the US and UK before your financial crisis,” he said in an interview. “It is more than [just] a bubble problem.”

He was speaking ahead of Monday’s announcement by the State Council that it had approved a plan to reform real estate taxes, the clearest indication yet that the government will for the first time impose an annual tax on some residential housing in order to rein in rising prices. The news sent shares in China down 2.4 per cent.

The unusually forthright comments from Mr Li contrast with the growing view among economists that the crisis in Europe will lead China to avoid further measures to tighten policy, including currency appreciation.

Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, reinforced that impression on Monday when he said it was too early for big economies to withdraw stimulus measures.

“The debt crisis in some European countries may impede Europe’s economic recovery,” he said in Tokyo. “China will make sure it maintains a sense of crisis.”

Mr Li said the high cost of housing could hamper future growth by slowing urbanisation. Rising prices were also a potential political flashpoint, especially among younger people who felt locked out of the property market.

“When prices go up, many people, especially young people, become very anxious,” he said. “It is a social problem.”

In spite of the sharp slowdown in property sales and the troubles in Europe, he said economic activity was still too strong. “China is running the risk or is on the verge of overheating,” he said. Although he added: “I would say the situation is not out of control.”

As well as calling for modest increases in deposit rates, which are negative in real terms, he said a gradual appreciation in the currency would help companies prepare for when the renminbi was considerably stronger.

freewen

我日，八达是文化人的论坛，这种非主流东西尽量少转

RedGuest

我日，八达是文化人的论坛，这种非主流东西尽量少转
freewen 发表于 2010-6-3 13:28

倒了 ft.com的文章，还非主流啊？