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千万别信美国人对中国经济的宣传和预测内含转帖

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发表于 2010-5-23 09:11 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由 [STAR]@heaven 于 2010-5-23 09:13 编辑

1993年诺贝尔奖得主Robert Fogel 2010年在美国《外交政策》上发文称2040年，中国经济总量将达到123万亿美元，这肯定是为了迷惑中国人民而做的，是美国人的无耻战略，千万别信

原文链接： http://www.foreignpolicy.com/art ... 000000000000?page=0,0

In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, ornearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's percapita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the EuropeanUnion, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, theaverage Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the averageFrenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in2040. Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capitawealth, according to my forecasts, China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- willdwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent)30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like.
　　
　　2040年，中国经济总量将达到123万亿美元，相当于2000年世界总量的三倍。人均GDP达到85000美元，相当于欧盟的两倍，远远超过日本和印度。换句话说，普通中国人的生活水平将超出法国人一倍，当中国从2000年的穷国变成2040年的超级富国。虽然中国人均水平不会超过美国，但是根据作者的预测，中国GDP占世界比将达到40%，美国则是14％，欧盟5％三十年之后。这就是世界经济状况的趋势。
　Most accounts of China's economic ascent offer little but vague or threatening generalities, and they usually grossly underestimate theextent of the rise -- and how fast it's coming. (For instance, a recent study bythe Carnegie Endowment for International Peace predicts that by 2050, China'seconomy will be just 20 percent larger than that of the United States.) Suchaccounts fail to fully credit the forces at work behind China's recent successor understand how those trends will shape the future. Even China's own economicdata in some ways actually underestimate economic outputs.
　　大多数关于中国经济崛起的预测要么模糊不清，要么意识挂帅，并且他们通常低估了中国的崛起的程度和速度（例如，由卡内基国际和平基金会最近的研究预测，到2050年，中国的经济将仅比美国大20％）。这些研究未能完全评估背后中国最近崛起趋势将如何塑造未来。甚至中国本身的经济数据在某些经济产出方面实际上都是低估的。

It's the same story with the relative decline of a Europeplagued by falling fertility as its era of global economic clout finally ends.Here, too, the trajectory will be more sudden and stark than most reportingsuggests. Europe's low birthrate and its muted consumerism mean itscontribution to global GDP will tumble to a quarter of its current share within30 years. At that point, the economy of the 15 earliest EU countries combinedwill be an eighth the size of China's. This is what the future will look like in a generation. It'scoming sooner than we think.
　　这同样是一个欧洲经济逐渐衰退，人口逐渐减少的时代。这种趋势将比通常预测的更为突然和明显。欧洲的低出生率和逐渐衰亡的消费主义意味着它对全世界GDP的贡献将从现在的21％减小到5％。在这种意义上，早期欧盟15个成员国加起来经济总量也仅仅是中国的八分之一，在2040年。这就是一代之后的未来，它来得比我们想象的要快得多
　　
第四段：
　　What, precisely, does China have going so right for it?
　　
　　The first essential factor that is often overlooked: theenormous investment China is making in education. More educated workers aremuch more productive workers. (As I have reported elsewhere, U.S. data indicatethat college-educated workers are three times as productive, and a high schoolgraduate is 1.8 times as productive, as a worker with less than a ninth-gradeeducation.) In China, high school and college enrollments are rising steeplydue to significant state investment. In 1998, then-President Jiang Zemin calledfor a massive increase in enrollment in higher education. At the time, just 3.4million students were enrolled in China's colleges and universities. Theresponse was swift: Over the next four years, enrollment in higher educationincreased 165 percent, and the number of Chinese studying abroad rose 152percent. Between 2000 and 2004, university enrollment continued to risesteeply, by about 50 percent. I forecast that China will be able to increaseits high school enrollment rate to the neighborhood of 100 percent and thecollege rate to about 50 percent over the next generation, which would byitself add more than 6 percentage points to the country's annual economicgrowth rate. These targets for higher education are not out of reach. It shouldbe remembered that several Western European countries saw college enrollment ratesclimb from about 25 to 50 percent in just the last two decades of the 20thcentury.
　　那么，准确的说，中国是如何能够成为上文所描述的呢？
　　第一个首要因数是经常被忽视的：中国在教育方面的巨大投资。更多受过教育的工人将产生更大的生产力。（正如我在其他地方报道，美国的数据表明，在中国受过大学教育的工人的生产力是初中生的三倍，一个高中毕业生的是其的1.8倍），高中和大学入学率急剧上升，由于大量的國镓投资。 1998年，当时的國镓主席茳澤姄呼吁大幅度增加高等教育入学率。当时，刚刚三百四十万学生在中国的高校录取。他们的反应是迅速的：在未来4年中，高等教育入学率增长百分之165，而中国出国留学人数上升152％。 2000年至2004年，大学入学率继续急剧上升约百分之五十。我预测，中国将能够在下一代里将其高中入学率升到百分之百和大学入学率提高到约50个百分点，这将增加超过6个gdp增长百分点。高等教育的这些目标并非遥不可及。它的应该记住，一些西欧國镓，在上世纪最后十年内将大学入学率从25％提高到50％
And it's not just individual workers whose productivityjumps significantly as a result of more education; it's true of firms as well,according to work by economist Edwin Mansfield. In a remarkable 1971 study,Mansfield found that the presidents of companies that have been early adopters of complex new technologies were on average younger and better educated than heads of firms that were slower to innovate.
　　教育的结果将不只是将个别工人的生产力提升，虽然这早已经是实践所证明的。根据经济学家埃德温曼斯菲尔德的工作， 1971 年一个里程碑式的研究中，曼斯菲尔德发现更年轻以及教育程度更高的公司经营者更能适应复杂的新技术
　The second thing many underestimate when making projectionsfor China's economy is the continued role of the rural sector. When we imaginethe future, we tend to picture Shanghai high-rises and Guangdong factories, but changes afoot in the Chinese countryside have made it an underappreciatedeconomic engine. In analyzing economic growth, it is useful to divide aneconomy into three sectors: agriculture, services, and industry. Over thequarter-century between 1978 and 2003, the growth of labor productivity in Chinahas been high in each of these sectors, averaging about 6 percent annually. Thelevel of output per worker has been much higher in industry and services, andthose sectors have received the most analysis and attention. (I estimate thatChina's rapid urbanization, which shifts workers to industry and services,added 3 percentage points to the annual national growth rate.) However,productivity is increasing even for those who remain in rural areas. In 2009,about 55 percent of China's population, or 700 million people, still lived inthe countryside. That large rural sector is responsible for about a third ofChinese economic growth today, and it will not disappear in the next 30 years.
　　第二件事情时，许多关于中国的经济预测低估农村部门的作用。当我们想像未来，我们马上浮现起上海的高楼林立，广东的工厂，但农村的变化已成为一个被低估的经济引擎。在分析经济增长，基本可以划分为三个部门：农业，服务业和工业经济。在四分之一个世纪的1978年和2003年，中国的劳动生产率增长一直是很高的，这些部门每年，平均每年约百分之六。在工业和服务业每个工人的产出水平已大大提高，这些部门受到大多数分析和关注。（我估计，中国的快速城市化中，轮班工人的工业和服务业，给國镓的增长速度增加3个百分点年度。）不过，即使那些在农村地区生产率也是增加的。 2009年，中国大约百分之55的人口，或7亿人口，仍然生活在农村。今天广大农村地区占中国经济增长的三分之一，和它在未来三十年不会消失。