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从bloomberg的分析来看, 注意英文加黑的部分.我总结了几点.
1. google收购moto的主要目的是17000个专利, 无论价值还是数量, 都比北电的专利要高. 别忘了, moto是无线的王者, 手机的发明者. 而北电的专利主要集中在网络侧. 另外, 诺西收购moto是没有专利的.
2. 前年moto卖手机部门8亿美元, 结果没人要. 中兴也说没兴趣. 可见制造部门本身的价值并不高. 尤其是现在android系统, nvidia芯片,加触摸屏都标准化的时代, 制造本身的技术含量不比富士康多多少. 也就是联想的水平吧. 所以moto除掉专利部分的价格应该低于8亿美元.
3.google用专利来保卫三星, htc等支持者, 也是在保卫android这个生态系统.
4. android的生态系统决定这google的未来. 云计算和移动互联网时代, 谁掌握了平台谁就掌握了移动互联网的话语权. 这个平台包括智能手机, 平板电脑, 以及可能的桌面电脑和服务器. 我使用的是moto的atrix, 从使用效果来看, 完全具有超级计算机的能力. 里面甚至集成了一个乌斑图的linux操作系统.
5. google的盈利模式还是靠平台来推广他的service. 包括搜索, google voice, google offer, google shopping, google maps, chrome, google+, gmail, ....
6. 为了推广平台, 家用游戏机业的案例可以来参考, 任天堂,索尼和微软每卖一台游戏机就要亏损很多, 但是为了市场占有率, 他们不惜这样做. 市场占有率上去了, 就会有人来开发应用. 然后平台再来收保护费. 微软的windows也采用了相似的做法, 都是不惜一切代价扩大市场占有率. 最终形成事实垄断.
7. 如今android系统市场占有率超过50%, 并且还在扩大. 而苹果却在其高端定位中逐渐的失去未来. 可以说, 苹果得到了现金, google得到了未来. 假如你是个移动开发者, 你会为谁开发.
8. 在这android生态系统的大好时刻, 苹果, 微软, nokia联合起来绞杀google, google于是只有去买moto, 继续维护这个生态系统.实现他对这个生态系统的承诺.
9. 至于会不会对其他厂商形成威胁. 大可不必. 从购买价格的比重来看, 125亿中, 设备制造只有不到8亿. 完全可以放弃. 至少可以说这个不是google的重点. moto手机部门独立运营, 自生自灭, google只取其专利. 另外, 也像当年微软即做directx游戏平台, 又做了一款帝国时代一样. 没有人说这是个威胁. 从google发布的信息来看, 他们之前跟三星, 索爱和LG沟通过, 这些厂商都是支持这个交易的.
10. 大财团在战略决战生态系统的时候, 规模之大是不可想象的, 一些小公司很容易被这场混战绞碎.比如interdigital就被绞碎了.
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以下为转载, 全球最专业的分析, 来自bloomberg:
Aug.15 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc., maker of the Android mobile-phonesoftware, agreed to buy smartphone maker Motorola Mobility HoldingsInc. for $12.5 billion in its biggest deal, gaining mobile patents andexpanding in the hardware business.
Motorola shareholders will get $40 a share in cash,the companies said in a statement today. That’s 63 percent more thanMotorola Mobility’s closing price on the New York Stock Exchange onAug. 12. Both boards have approved the takeover.
Larry Page, Google’s co-founder who took over aschief executive officer in April, is transforming Google into asmartphone maker to take on Apple Inc.’s iPhone and gain more clout inthe wireless business. Motorola Mobility, under pressure to seekstrategic changes by activist investor Carl Icahn, gives Google morethan 17,000 patents the company can leverage in negotiations withcompetitors such as Apple.
“This is the next step in building their position inthe mobile world so they can distribute Google products and servicesthrough mobile phones and tablets,” said Clayton Moran, an analyst atBenchmark Co. in Boca Raton, Florida, who recommends Google shares.“They want a success with the Android platform and this will enhancetheir position in the mobile marketplace, as well as defend theirposition through the patent portfolio.”
Apple, which makes its own wireless software andhardware, briefly became the most valuable company in the world lastweek, helped by demand for the iPhone and the iPad tablet computer.
Motorola Mobility, based in Libertyville, Illinois,rose $13.92, or 57 percent, to $38.40 at 10:23 a.m. on the New YorkStock Exchange. Google, based in Mountain View, California, fell $5.77,or 1 percent, to $558 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. InterDigital Inc.,owner of mobile-phone patents that’s considering a sale, fell $14.87,or 20 percent, to $60.85.
‘Heck of a Premium’
Google is paying a premium of 73 percent comparedwith Motorola Mobility’s 20-day trading average price before today. Theaverage premium of more than 360 deals in the wireless- equipmentindustry on that basis was 32 percent in the past five years, accordingto Bloomberg data.
“This is a heck of a premium” said Lee Simpson, ananalyst at Jefferies International in London. Motorola Mobility’spatents are “a good counterweight if Apple comes after Google.”
Google agreed to pay Motorola Mobility $2.5 billionif the deal falls through, a person familiar with the matter said.Jennifer Erickson, a spokeswoman for Motorola Mobility, declined tocomment on the breakup fee.
Android Rivals
The deal -- the largest wireless-equipment deal inat least a decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg -- alsomakes Google a competitor to the other handset makers that use Android.In addition to phones made by Motorola Mobility, the software runshandsets made by companies such as Samsung Electronics Co. and HTC Corp.
“Google making an acquisition of one distinct playeris going to put Samsung and HTC back on their heels and thinking, ‘Dowe need to go forward with this platform?’” Simpson said. “‘Are thereother platforms we can use?’ It might start to put Microsoft into focusas an alternative platform,” he said, referring to Microsoft Corp.’sWindows Mobile software.
Android, which Google gives away for free, willremain available to other manufacturers, the company said. WinstonYung, chief financial officer of HTC, gave his support to the deal,saying it will strengthen “the whole Android ecosystem.”
Google said Samsung and Android-phone manufacturersSony Ericsson Mobile Communications AB and LG Electronics Inc. alsosupport the transaction.
Microsoft rose 35 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $25.45in early trading. Nokia Oyj, which plans to start making Windowsphones, climbed 10 percent to 4.14 euros in Helsinki.
‘New Ground’
Android was the best-selling smartphone operatingsystem in the second quarter as sales rose more than fourfold to 43.3percent of the market, led by Samsung and HTC, according to researchfirm Gartner Inc. Apple had an 18.2 percent share, the researcher said.While Motorola Mobility’s Droid phones have found a following in theU.S., globally the company ranks outside the top players in thesmartphone market.
“The combination of the two companies is going tocreate tremendous shareholder value, drive great user experiences andaccelerate innovation,” Page said today on a conference call. “Motorolaalso has a strong patent portfolio, which will help protect Androidfrom anticompetitive threats from Microsoft, Apple and other companies.”
End for Pioneer
The deal marks an end as an independent company fora company that helped pioneer mobile phones and introduced its firstconsumer handset in the early 1980s.
Motorola announced a plan to spin off itsmobile-phone business in March 2008 amid market share losses andpressure from billionaire Icahn. The company then delayed the move amidthe global recession before completing the split in January. MotorolaInc. became Motorola Solutions Inc., which makes radio equipment toemergency workers and scanning devices for retailers.
Last month, Icahn urged Motorola Mobility to explorealternatives for its patent portfolio after Nortel Networks Corp. soldwireless-technology intellectual property for $4.5 billion.
“This is a great outcome for all shareholders ofMotorola Mobility, especially in light of today’s markets,” Icahn saidtoday in a statement. “Motorola is activism at its best and we applaudmanagement and the board for acting so responsibly.”
Since the January spinoff, Motorola Mobility shareshave lost about a fifth of their value as the company has struggled toreturn to profitability and keep pace with larger rivals such asSamsung and Apple.
Qatalyst Partners advised Motorola and Wachtell,Lipton, Rosen & Katz LLP provided legal help. Lazard Ltd. advisedGoogle and Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP was the legalcounsel.
--With assistance from Jonathan Browning in London and Serena Saitto in New York. Editors: Ville Heiskanen, Cecile Daurat
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